Simon Harris on Catalonian independence

(Pic source: RT News)

Readers of George Orwell’s “Homage to Catalonia” (1938) will remember the author’s strength of feeling for the cause and for his fellows. Catalonia is that kind of place, even now, for there are a number of English people living there who see themselves simply as Catalans born abroad. In the wake of last month’s rallies, expatriates met to discuss the implications of secession from Spain.

 

(Pic via Brett Hetherington)

One of the participants was Simon Harris, who gives an account of the issues and feelings of Catalans in this email interview:

Please describe the October 1 expats meeting, and the fears and hope of attendees.

The October 1 meeting was held at the Antiga Fabrica Moritz and a couple of hundred foreign-born Catalan citizens attended (We don't really like “expat”. It certainly doesn't tally with my experience in Barcelona and smacks of people talking English and drinking G&T on the Costas. We live here and get on with our lives much like the locals despite having been born elsewhere.)

 

The four people on the panel talked of a more prosperous future with a greater degree of social justice.  

The main concern is a possible frontier effect causing a decrease in trade with Spain. But I believe the confrontational style of central government exaggerates this. 47% of Catalan exports go to Spain. Many of the commercial relationships go back decades and are often with multinationals so it’s actually quite difficult to tell where things have been produced. Even the boycott on Catalan cava of a few years ago didn't last long (the alternative was French champagne that doesn't taste the same and costs three times as much). Ultimately, consumers care about quality and value for money so after a period of instability the trade relations will settle at a slightly lower level but at the same time, Catalonia will find new foreign markets. (The area of the economy that will be worst affected is the Catalan banks, La Caixa and Sabadell. Once you've changed your account you don't go back.) 

Our other concern is the general lack of debate. This is partly a cultural problem but also because since the referendum isn't allowed, there's been no real campaigning on either side. People who are active, such as most of those who attended the meeting) tend to be pro-vote and pro-independence. 

What are the arguments for Catalonian independence? 

Firstly, cultural-historical: like Scotland, Catalonia used to be a separate country and was gradually taken over by its neighbour. It still has a strong sense of its identity, which is why the Spanish government has always tried to suppress Catalan language and culture. Catalan was illegal after 1714 under Felipe V and you could be arrested for speaking it under Franco. As recently as 2012, education minister José Ignacio Wert said that he wanted to 'españolizar' Catalan schoolchildren and has since introduce a new education law called the LOMCE which attempts to do so. Although the language of education is Catalan, all Catalan kids are bilingual and in PISA tests (independent EU university tests) Catalan schoolchildren always score above the national average in Castilian Spanish! So the LOMCE is a repressive rather than an educational measure. 

There are also economic arguments. To start with, Catalonia pays far more in taxes than it gets back in investment from Madrid. Yet central government obstructs development in our region and is prepared to accept national disadvantage in order to keep us down. For example, the European Corridor Freight Line which would run from Algeciras, Malaga, Cartagena, Valencia and Barcelona into northern Europe is constantly blocked because it doesn't go through Madrid. Even though it would benefit the whole country, it would benefit Barcelona/Catalonia most. 

Look also at access to airports. Madrid Airport's Terminal 4 has metro, train and new roads - and they plan to spend €16 billion on an AVE (high speed train) connection serving a handful of passengers a day. Meanwhile, connections to Barcelona airport's T1 terminal need improving and Iberia Airlines have just cancelled intercontinental flights from Barcelona. It’s mad. 

The fact that everything in Spain is run by national agencies disincentivises efficiency. For example the hugely profitable Port of Barcelona subsidises the unprofitable ports and hasn't money left to reinvest in its own infrastructure. And so on. 

How has the movement started and grown, and what is the degree of general support? 

Things came to a head when Catalonia's new Statute of Autonomy, which had been watered down and passed by Spanish Parliament and voted on in referendum with 75% in favour in Catalonia, was declared unconstitutional by the national Constitutional Court in July 2010. 

The first demonstration under the slogan 'We are a nation. We decide' took to the streets with more than a million people in Barcelona. Just prior to this informal ballots on independence were organised in villages and towns and the 'Barcelona Decides' ballot took place in the early summer of 2011 with a festive atmosphere and a massive vote in favour. 

The extreme right-wing Partido Popular (they say they're conservatives but the party was founded by former Franco ministers and current leaders have ties with the fascist Falange party) came to power in Spain in the autumn of 2011 and tension increased. In 2012 on La Diada, the Catalan National Day (September 11^th) more than 1.5 million took to the streets of Barcelona under the slogan 'Catalonia, New European State' and for the first time independence for Catalonia became a majority opinion. 

The 2013 Diada demonstration was the “Catalan Way” in which 1.5 million people joined hands from Catalonia's southern border to its northern border with France, and in this year's “V” 1.8 million people created a human mosaic in Barcelona. Both events were perfectly organised and there has been no violence of any kind. 

Current support for independence stands at roughly 50% in favour with 25% against and 25% undecided. These figures vary by 5% in either direction, depending on the poll. 

What is the attitude of the Spanish Government, the EU and supranational bodies? 

The Spanish government has refused to negotiate on the main issues.  

A few days after the 2012 Diada, Catalan President Artur Mas met with Spanish President Mariano Rajoy to discuss changes to tax policy. Catalonia currently pays €16 billion in taxes (net of inward investment) to central government; this is 8% of Catalan GDP, making it the most highly-taxed region in Europe. Rajoy refused to discuss the issue. 

The other complaint involves language and education. Under the Education Minister’s LOMCE plan to 'hispanicize' Catalan children, it will be possible for students to go through their whole school career without learning any Catalan. The Spanish Constitutional Court also obliges the Catalan government to pay for private education exclusively in the Spanish language to any parent that asks for it. Yet even in the atmosphere of tension only 40 families in a population of 7.5 million have requested this. Why? Because the Catalan education system is very good as it is and guarantees a high level of integration. 

In Autonomic elections in November 2012, 4 parties included a pledge to hold a referendum in their manifestoes, so now 86 members out of a Catalan parliament of 135 deputies are committed to this. The Catalan government presented a proposal to hold a referendum on November 9 in the Spanish congress, which was voted against by all the major Spanish parties and defeated.  

The Catalan parliament then drew up a law of 'Non Referenderary Consultation' (a non-binding question to find out how many people are in favour of independence and also allow debate from both sides); the Constitutional Court decided that too was unconstitutional and threatened to suspend for life any civil servant who engaged in any sort of organisational activity. 

As a result last Tuesday (14 October), President Mas announced a 'participative' vote would take place without using the census (voters will register using their ID card on voting day), volunteers rather than civil servants would be involved in the organisation and polling stations would be restricted to facilities owned by the Catalan government. 

The Partido Popular government in Madrid is considering taking it before the Constitutional Court as I write [15 October]. It should be noted that many see the Constitutional Court as biased in favour of the Spanish government: some of the judges are former Partido Popular activists and only gave up membership after being elected. 

The attitude of the EU and other supranational bodies is that it is an internal Spanish issue. 

Could you comment further on the November 9 “consultation”? 

Because the consultation is organised by the 'Yes' camp it is unlikely that many Noes will bother to vote, but if as expected 2 million Catalans vote 'Yes' this will be a very strong message to the world. Either way the Spanish government lose. If they ban even this watered-down consultation, they'll look like fascists. If they let it go ahead, the world will see a festive peaceful Catalan society make a powerful democratic statement. 

What are the movement’s chances of success, and what processes would be involved in legal and economic separation? Would Catalonia choose to remain in the Eurozone? 

I think there are high chances of success. Although the participative vote on November 9 isn’t a referendum, the message will be clear if there is a massive turnout. This will be a prelude to 'plebiscitary' elections in which pro-independence parties form a single candidacy with the promise that if they win, independence will be unilaterally declared the following day. 

The Catalan Commission for National Transition has been meeting for the last couple of years and has produced 18 reports on different aspects of the future state of Catalonia. They published a 1,000-page white paper 10 days ago so many things have been considered. 

As there won't be agreement with Spain there will be difficulties, principally in setting up a Treasury and collecting taxes and Social Security. 

Obviously, international recognition will be crucial but if everything is done in a clear and transparent democratic process there shouldn't be too many problems, apart from anything else because Catalonia has a large economy with international exports and is home to multinationals. 

How would you view Catalonia’s economic and social prospects afterwards? 

Obviously, there would be an unstable period before internal infrastructures are in place and international recognition comes. If we can get through that I'm highly optimistic. 

Catalonia has a strong economy centred on its vibrant capital Barcelona. Catalans are creative, gregarious and above all peace-loving. As the demonstration of only 38,000 people in favour of staying in Spain showed last weekend, the strength of feeling in the anti-independence camp, whilst it exists, is not as bitter as Spanish politicians would like us to believe. 

Originally from Nottingham in England, Simon Harris arrived in pre-Olympic Barcelona in 1988 and immediately fell in love with the language, culture and history. He has now lived half his life in Catalonia, where he first earned his living as a musician and then as a teacher of English at the British Council and Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and translator of Catalan and Spanish. He published his first book 'Going Native in Catalonia' in 2007 and since 2011 has run the tourism website Barcelonas.com. Simon is an active campaigner for Catalan independence. Find out more on Simon’s blog - http://independence.barcelonas.com

“Catalonia Is Not Spain: A Historical Perspective” by Simon Harris will be published by 4Cats Books in early November. Buy from:

4Cats Books

Carrer Mallorca, 299
Pral 2a
08037 Barcelona
books@barcelonas.com

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France - the supposed hell where we'd love to live

The Daily Mail flashes its richman fangs at strike-hit France - such an awful place, eh? That would explain why the late Sir Stuart Bell MP spent more time there than in the UK, I expect.

Time for some stats:

WHO, 2013 - from Wikipedia

 

World Bank, 2011-2013 (via Wikipedia)

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality

 

World Bank, 2009-2013

World Bank, 2009-2013

 

Total public and private debt owed to non-residents
Source: Wikipedia

Perhaps that's why, less than five years ago (and, like the temperature of the oceans, things don't change that fast), the Daily Mail was reporting this:

Daily Mail, 7 January 2010

As Slog-blogger John Ward - now based in France - is fond of saying, IABATO - which as he is also a Hellenophile, may be derived from the Greek expression "ιαβατω!" ("I smell bullsh*t!").


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Knowing

Suppose many orthodox social and political narratives are either completely false or far more inaccurate than we have hitherto supposed. It’s not much of a supposition, but I’m thinking of narratives based on old-fashioned generalisations about human behaviour.

From similar causes have arisen those notions which are called universal or general, such as man, dog, horse, etc. I mean so many images arise in the human body, e.g., so many images of men are formed at the same time, that they overcome the power of imagining, not altogether indeed, but to such an extent that the mind cannot imagine the small differences between individuals (eg colour, size etc.) and their fixed number, and only that in which all agree in so far as the body is affected by them is distinctly imagined.

Baruch Spinoza - Ethics (Boyle translation)

We are all familiar with the weaknesses of what Spinoza called universal or general notions. As he says, they are substitutes for a level of individual detail we cannot possibly attain. We have to use generalisations, clambering around their many pitfalls as best we can.

Yet modern search engines and databases have already acquired a level of individual detail about many aspects of our lives and habits. They have moved on from the ancient and intractable situation where the mind cannot imagine the small differences between individuals.

So Spinoza's point is being made obsolete by technology, by huge modern databases which are not constrained by our ancient need to generalise. Not surprisingly their information is valuable enough to be sold to third parties. With safeguards it is said, but who believes that?

So generalisations are no longer necessary for those with deep pockets. We know it of course, but how do we deal with it?

How might we acquire such information ourselves without a government’s ability to twist arms? The short answer is that we can’t. The information isn’t likely to appear in books either because there is too much of it and the financial return would be inadequate. Neither is it likely to appear in academic literature for the same reasons.

So for global corporations and presumably governments, Spinoza’s problem is rapidly becoming outdated. The big hitters don’t need his universal or general notions. They have at their fingertips a colossally detailed corpus of information about human behaviour which lies well beyond the reach of most ordinary folk.

What do they know that we don’t?

How to manipulate our behaviour in order to ensure bovine social and political attitudes? Almost certainly, so the only political answer is smarter voting.

Oh oh – not smarter voting again. Rats.

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White collar robots

My working life was almost entirely spent in environmental science. Over almost forty years I saw it change from a piecemeal, locally-based effort to a full-blown global bureaucracy with the UN at the top. It became process-driven.

Apart from an ambitious few who knowingly go with the flow, most capable scientists don’t cope well with bureaucracy. Their working ethic tends to be based on two assumptions.

The truth will out.

People are essentially ethical.

Unfortunately the truth isn’t that powerful and process-driven people are not known for an unequivocal reliance on ethical standards. As a result most scientists do not compete well with the implacable nature of process-driven bureaucracies. By the time I left, the good scientists had mostly departed and process worship was setting every agenda.

Even so I had an interesting time and probably learned more about human nature and the nature of institutions than I then realised. I now look back on it as a time of profound social change which eventually became obvious, but had been rather less obvious only a few decades earlier.

One reason why the left/right political dichotomy no longer works is that both sides of the political divide are process-driven. They also seem increasingly willing to merge their processes. The traditional left always loved process with its tendency to centralise every decision and its endless mistrust of the uncontrolled.

Today even our local electrician is enmeshed in process - trained, certified tested and certified again. The butcher the baker and even the candlestick maker too no doubt. Maybe the latter will make a comeback after a few more years of process-driven energy policies.

So political right dances hand in hand with political left because government and global business are nothing if not process-driven. We are entering a process-driven world where most young people probably have no prospect whatever of avoiding process-driven employment.

Everything they do will fall into one of two categories.

It will be part of a documented process – or

It will be forbidden.

The vast majority will have no outlet for their modest talents because there will be no tick box for modest talent. Process rules. White collar robots are the future.

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Ebola and liberty

Ron Paul argues that the solution to containing diseases like Ebola is to allow foreign countries to grow their economies so that they can afford modern medical facilities.

On the face of it that makes sense, as does so much of he says. But it does link to another issue: what is free trade, and what should it be?

Twenty years ago, billionaire Sir James Goldsmith warned that the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade would destabilise society by undermining the labour forces of developed economies. This is exactly what has happened, and it also has the potential to unsettle the countries to whom the work has been outsourced or "offshored". I had previously produced a jokey graphic to illustrate the disruptive effects of what I might call "free trade without brakes or steering":

from Broad Oak Magazine, 18 June 2012

The order-givers have, in effect, used the Chinese like coolies and are quite prepared to switch to other countries (such as Vietnam) to keep down labour costs; and to "re-onshore" business to the USA when robots can do the work instead.

I don't at all include Ron Paul in this picture, but it does seem to me that if we are to have peaceful evolution on world trade then we need more than GATT, TPP and TTIP, which are (as far as I understand) simply battering-rams for accumulated capital to force its way into markets irrespective of the human costs there and at home.


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Old Newcastle

The Black Gate and the Castle Keep

I fell in love with Newcastle many years ago when I had to attend business meetings just outside the city. On one occasion, as I was walking back to my hotel, one of my northern colleagues pointed out the historic features of ‘Old’ Newcastle to me whilst our colleagues continued to talk business. It was on this occasion that I first heard about the historic Castle Keep and the remains of the curtain walls that were part of the city’s medieval castle’s defences.

The castle keep is a fine example of a Norman keep; it was built by Henry II between 1168 and 1178. The Castle Keep website tells us that “it stands within a site that also contains: an early motte and bailey castle built by Robert Curthose, the son of William the Conqueror: an Anglo-Saxon cemetery and a Roman Fort (Pons Aelius)”. The keep is situated in a naturally defensible site on a steep sided promontory overlooking the River Tyne. I enjoyed spectacular views of Newcastle from the rooftop.

Near the castle keep is the Black Gate which is one of the last additions to the castle’s mediaeval defences. It was built between 1247 and 1250 as the gatehouse of the barbican, a walled, defensive, entrance passage that led to the castle’s north gate. Over the years the black gate has had many different uses and has been much altered over time. The name Black Gate has nothing to do with the gate’s appearance, it derives from Patrick Black, a London merchant who occupied the building in the first half of the 17th century.

St. Nicholas Cathedral from the Castle Keep

Not far from the Black Gate is the Cathedral Church of St Nicholas which started life as a humble parish church, only becoming a cathedral in July 1882 when, due to the rapid growth of the industrial population, Newcastle separated from the ancient diocese of Durham. Soon after the castle was built, the first parish church was built on the site where we now see St Nicholas’ Cathedral. The first, wooden building was rebuilt in stone towards the end of the 12th century and was subsequently damaged by fire on two occasions leading to repairs and other modifications over the years including the addition of the stone crown and tower in the 15th century moving the church to much the same form as we see today.

To the rear of the Cathedral, in a street that is quaintly named ‘Amen Corner’, is the curious Vampire Rabbit. The rabbit (or is it a hare?) sits atop an ornate doorway which is now the entrance to an office. Although there are many theories, nobody seems to know the meaning of the strange creature. 

The city has many archaeologically interesting buildings including an elegant Edwardian shopping arcade that is contained within the triangular triple-domed Central Arcade building. The arcade is underneath a glass barrel-vaulted roof and is decorated with fabulous tile work.

For those who like art there is the Laing Art Gallery. The gallery which focuses on British oil paintings, water colours, ceramics, silver and glassware houses permanent exhibitions including an 18th-19th century gallery and the Northern Spirit Gallery that celebrates the achievements of artists and manufacturers from the North East. The gallery displays temporary exhibitions regularly.

I have stayed in many Newcastle hotels over the years; my current hotel of choice is The Vermont. It faces The Moot Hall which has a columned portico to the front and to its rear, is based upon the Parthenon. If you are lucky your room in The Vermont will provide you with a close-up view of the Tyne Bridge, one of several iconic bridges spanning the Tyne it links the city of Newcastle with the town of Gateshead.

The Millennium, Tyne and Swing bridges with the Moot Hall in the foreground

Near to the Tyne Bridge is the historic Swing Bridge opened in 1876 to replace an older Georgian bridge that prevented large vessels from moving ‘up river’. Opening in 1849, the High Level Bridge is even older than the Swing Bridge and is the oldest of the existing bridges. It was designed by railway engineer Robert Stephenson and it has two decks; the upper for the railway and the lower for the road. A more recent addition to the line-up of bridges crossing the Tyne is the Gateshead Millennium Bridge, which is a pedestrian and cycle bridge linking the waterfronts of Newcastle and Gateshead.

Tynmouth priory, castle, gun battery and coast guard station

Further afield is Tynemouth with its Spanish Battery, the towering memorial statue of Admiral Lord Collingwood (Nelson’s second in command at Trafalgar) and Tynemouth Priory and Castle. The castle and priory site contains interesting historical features including gun batteries that were used in the first and second world wars and a former coast guard station (not open to the public). Within the priory church the Percy Chantry is the only part to remain complete although it has been much restored. It has a vaulted ceiling with finely carved bosses that are well worth studying. The headland where the priory and castle ruins are situated offers spectacular views over the sea and the mouth of the river Tyne.

I have not explored all of ‘Old’ Newcastle and there is much more to Newcastle than its history. It is a vibrant city with many restaurants, pubs and clubs to explore depending on your preferred choice.

More information can be found via the following links:

• Old Newcastle
• Bridges on the Tyne
• Visit England – NewcastleGateshead

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Robinson Crusoe: contrarian and dreamer, but right

In October 1704 Alexander Selkirk was marooned on Mas a Tierra, an uninhabited island some 400 miles off the coast of Chile.

From Google Maps

But this probably wasn't the first time he had left his ship, the Cinque Ports, one of a pair of licensed privateers. Some months before, many of the crew (including, it's surmised, Selkirk, who as the ship's master was an expert) had quarrelled with the replacement captain over the worm-eaten condition of the vessel and, it's said, Selkirk had been warned in a dream that it would fail and be lost. Two-thirds of the company went ashore at the Juan Fernandez islands (of which Mas a Tierra was the largest) before being persuaded to return.

The next time, Selkirk (whose real name was Selcraig) went ashore on what is now known as Robinson Crusoe Island, but the others didn't follow and the captain, to make an example of him, refused to have him back.

The ship was lost soon afterwards. Some sources say it sank with the loss of most of the crew; Partington (The British Cyclopedia of Biography, 1838, p. 918).says it was surrendered to the Spaniards because it was perilously unseaworthy.

The curmudgeonly Scot was right, after all.


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MPs - a proper job?

"Members of Parliament work for an average of 70 hours a week, representing their constituents and performing their duties in the House of Commons," says this Guardian article.

In the 2013/14 session, Parliament sat for 162 days. Based on a 5-day week, that's 32.4 weeks, or 62% of the year. If each week was indeed a 70-hour week, that would be 2,268 hours a year, or the equivalent of 49 hours a week for the ordinary worker's 46.4-week working year.

That's assuming, of course, that 70 hours on site is 70 hours' work. I find it hard to believe that MPs work solidly for 14 hours per day, but perhaps they have amazing stamina. My brother tells me that he thinks the most you can expect to do is 6 hours' effective work per day, and that sounds more plausible.

Not that the average means everybody. Following an article about Sir Stuart Bell, who hadn't held a surgery in his constituency for 14 years and spent more time in France than in England, The Guardian surveyed MP absenteeism from the House in the first two months of 2011: 45 Members managed no more than 50% attendance, and the leader among these was Roger Godsiff - my former representative! - at 88.5% absence. In 2008, average absenteeism ran at about 36%.

The Government-Opposition pairing system liberates many from having to attend debates, but why should it be assumed that one side must automatically vote Aye and the other No?

And of those who do attend, how many follow the debate all the way through, and have read and understood the legislation they are passing? The Boiling Frog's sidebar quotes former Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd on the Maastricht Treaty: "Now we've signed it - we had better read it."

No wonder MPs made £7 million in outside interests last year, and 20 of them earned more than their Parliamentary salary.

Richard North says windmills "are built to run, on average, for less than ten percent of the time." Perhaps we could replace a substantial number of MPs with windmills - at least the hot air in the Debating Chamber might finally be put to productive use.

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Why do the Western news media promote ISIS?

"Islamic State.. Islamic State..."

ISIS is not a State, nor in the opinion of most fellow-Muslims, is it Islamic.

Can the news media please stop handing them the gift that keeps on giving? Perhaps "Blackshirts" would be better.


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Some Christians are "mad, bad and dangerous to know" - and not in a sexy Byronic way

On the site of former Republican Congressman Ron Paul, a committed Christian, is reprinted a sharp attack on the homicidal bigotry of some fundamentalist Christians.

"Final solution... Muslim death wish [of victims of Muslim extremists].. Syrians under siege by ISIS have pleaded, “Please bomb us!... kill them... God’s sworn enemies...  mass sterilization, mass expulsion, or some combination of the two... crush the vicious seed of Ishmael in Jesus’ name... Islam shall be outlawed in the United States..."

Orators and hotheads like this make one wonder whether more democracy would really be a blessing.

Byron in 1814.

"Don't blame me," says the ghost of Lord Byron, "I loved the Sufis."

"The fifth session was chaired by Professor Naji Oueijan from Notre Dame University in Lebanon. The speakers were his students Rouba Douaihy, Hala Halaoui, Tracey El Hajj, and Grace Nakhoul. In “Byron and the Sufi Poets” Douaihy discussed the influence of Sufi poetry on the works of Lord Byron. She stated that the Orient was a source of inspiration for Byron’s works and that Byron looked to the East for escapism, peace of mind and spiritual elevation and that Byron’s extensive readings about the East along with his later travels to Albania, Turkey and Greece as well as other Eastern countries are at the very heart of his Oriental tales. His readings of Persian Sufi poetry by figures such as Firdausi, Sadi and Hafiz, inspired many of the themes in his Oriental tales, including“the triple eros”of power, wisdom and love. To Byron, Firdausi’s works represent the power of the East, Sadi’s represent wisdom, and Hafiz’s represent love."

- Messolonghi Byron Society international conference (2011)


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ISIS vs CHERWELL

ISIS now faces formidable resistance from a new force called CHERWELL. The latter's acronym stands for Corporate Hellcats' Endless Robot Wars Extending from Libya to Lebanon.

A General Atomics Predator deploying an AGM-114 Hellfire Missile

Unfortunately, since the remote operators are unworldly youngsters recruited from GTA5 and Minecraft fanboards, the prospects for peace in Oxford have dimmed. After Mesopotamia, Jericho? Then the Bodleian?


(Click to enlarge)

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The informed patient

Every now and then we hear about people who look up their medical condition on the web and even tell the doctor what needs to be done. 

However, GPs could be said to mediate between patients and their own bodies and they certainly mediate between patients and the wider health machine. So patients who research their illness beforehand are trying to shortcut or at least understand part of the doctor’s mediation service. Presumably doctors don’t approve.

With the growth in information technology, this trend can be no great surprise to anyone including the medical profession, but what does it imply? If we look at the role of mediation in service industries then it could imply something of wider significance than healthcare.

As with doctors, the status of a mediator and the service they offer is often backed a certain mystique which also tends to be based on arcane knowledge. 

In times gone by this kind of mediation was almost entirely in the hands of the established church via its priests and high officials. Established churches offered the ultimate mediation service – mediation between the faithful and God - a very ancient form of social control.

A decline in religious observance seems to have coincided with a rise of a whole plethora of alternative mediation services still based, at least in part, on mystique and arcane knowledge. We call them service industries but the parallel with priestly mediation is striking. Potentially just as fragile too - in the face of information technology and the simple human desire to know.

So when patients arm themselves with knowledge before consulting their doctor, maybe we are seeing a fracture in the mystique of arcane knowledge. It’s not that the doctor has little to offer, but more interestingly, a possible crumbling of the doctor’s mystique and a recognition that his or her knowledge is accessible and not arcane.

The issue is complex because this is a subtle social and technological shift rather than a quantifiable economic trend. Even so it could have a profoundly negative impact on any service industry where the price and/or demand for mediation are sustained by an element of mystique and arcane knowledge.

Bankers we already know about, but how much of their trouble was caused by their inability or unwillingness to mediate between their customers and financial complexities? How much of an improvement would follow from a drastic simplification and demystifying of what bankers do? Has the mystique disappeared anyway?

Lawyers mediate between their clients and the law. On the surface there is nothing wrong with that, but what about the element of mystique and arcane knowledge which always seem to go with mediation?

To take an example from the entertainment industry, BrianCox offers mediation between TV viewers and the whole universe. Some folk don’t do things by halves do they? Lots of mystique and arcane knowledge behind that one.

Psychologists and psychiatrists offer mediation between a client and their own mind. Surely an example of professional chutzpah worth savouring.

Politicians offer mediation between voters and the hazards of the real world. Their credibility is crumbling to dust mostly because of their inability to mediate as claimed. 

However, their political failures could be the harbinger of wider failures. The failure of politicians to mediate as claimed, their obvious lack of arcane knowledge and the tarnished mystique of power may have implications well beyond politics.

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Red Biddy

I've been reading the Hansard report of the Second Reading of the Methylated Spirits Bill from 1934.  It's an interesting read, a battle between the desire to control a comparatively minor but distressing evil and a desire not to interfere with the legitimate uses of methylated spirits. The purpose of the Bill was to reduce the highly unpleasant effects of methylated spirit addiction, succinctly stated by Miss Horsbrugh. 

But in bringing forward this Bill I would point out that it is not a temperance measure. Already the Government and all right-thinking people have realised that it is bad for health to drink mineralised methylated spirits, and they wish to have that stopped. 

However, Miss Horsbrugh also seems to be convinced that the Bill is only necessary because other spirits are rendered too expensive by alcohol duty.

I ask the representative of the Government and those who are opposing this Bill to give me any real reason why we restrict all these other alcoholic beverages as to the hours in which they are sold and the methods under which the public can obtain them, and yet allow an unrestricted sale in many of our shops of this poisonous alcohol? Why should the Government frown on "Johnnie Walker" and give the glad eye to "Red Biddy"? Why is the tax so excessive on whisky when up and down the country social workers tell us that if only the methylated spirit drinker could get away from this poisonous spirit and get a taste for a decent spirit, there is some chance of him being cured of his appalling vice.

A Mr Frederick Macquisten also supported the Bill and made some interesting additions to Miss Horsbrugh's observations.

I listened with interest to the evidence that was said to be given by the principal Excise Officer. He has a good salary, and no doubt he drinks good whisky. It is very unlikely that he drinks methylated spirits, and it is extremely unlikely that anybody who could afford to buy whisky would drink methylated spirits. No doubt the same applies to the hon. Member for London University (Sir E. Graham-Little), but everybody is not so refined as he is, and liquors which appeal to other people would not apeal to him or to me. The practice of drinking methylated spirits is the illegitimate child of the Whisky Duty. If that duty were not so high, this evil would never exist, but it does exist because the duty hits the poor at the expense of the rich, and nobody seems to care what happens to the poor— Rattle his bones over the stones, He's only a pauper whom nobody owns. Nobody seems to remember that a definite temptation is put in the way of the very poorest of the population. This Bill will prove to be a hindrance to the sale of this stuff...

Methylated spirit drinking is a definite evil. It is no use telling us that the convictions of people for getting drunk on methylated spirit are infinitesimal in number. People do not get it in public houses. They buy a bottle of it and get a bottle of Spanish red wine, and in that way make their own "Red Biddy" and get intoxicated in their own homes, and as they do not venture out—because they are in a state of coma for twelve hours or so afterwards—the police do not find out...

Generally I object to restrictions of all kinds. I believe that if we had perfect and absolute freedom in all matters the difficulties would soon solve themselves. The degenerates, the people who cannot control themselves, would all pass out, and we should be purged of them in a generation—a rather hectic generation, I admit. Look at the mass of restrictions against the drinking of wholesome whisky and wholesome beer...

The Bill should have a Second Reading and if any Clause gives trouble it can be dealt with in committee. I have great pleasure in supporting the Bill, but I would say that it lies in the hands of the Chancellor of the Exchequer to make the Bill unnecessary by the reduction of the whisky duty.

What strikes me about all this is the way it straddles two very different social attitudes. On the one hand we have a desire to leave ordinary people in peace and allow them to live their lives as they see fit. On the other hand, even the hard-nosed Mr Macquisten was in not in favour of doing nothing if something constructive could be done.

Yet could this be said today?

Generally I object to restrictions of all kinds. I believe that if we had perfect and absolute freedom in all matters the difficulties would soon solve themselves. The degenerates, the people who cannot control themselves, would all pass out, and we should be purged of them in a generation—a rather hectic generation, I admit.

No I don't think so either.

The whole thing is both a harbinger of meddling times to come and an interesting insight into our own bureaucratic tangles and taboos. The Salvation Army was in favour of the Act of course, but they saw Red Biddy in action.

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A nuanced climate

The orthodox climate debate seems to be spinning off some nuances in the face of static global temperatures. Subtle changes in emphasis and a leaching away of previous enthusiasms. A split seems to be developing between the old climate orthodoxy and a newer, more nuanced approach.

Even the BBC seems less enthusiastic about climate stories these days. For example, tonight there is a new Horizon programme, the first of a three part series about cats.

Will the moggy series be more popular than another airing of alarming climate forecasts? Very likely, because political polling suggests the general public have also lost much of their enthusiasm for the climate narrative.

This slight change in attitude by the BBC is more than a straw in the wind too. The BBC originally adopted the bog standard orthodox climate narrative, shorn of even the most obvious caveats. These days it seems less keen, as if even its internal narrative is cooling off – pun intended. 

This is significant. The BBC has been a major player in the orthodox climate narrative and even though it hasn’t defected, any change in tone is presumably significant. Although without being a fly on its well-funded walls one can never be quite sure of these things.

Yet there has always been an important divide between the public climate narrative and the science behind it. Take this well-known example from the IPCC 2001 Assessment Report (TAR), issued when the orthodox narrative was in full swing.

The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.

Prediction is not possible it says, but that’s not what the general public heard and not what organs such as the BBC reported. There is a nuance here though. The predictions we hear about via the BBC and others are actually scenarios, not predictions.

These scenarios were endorsed as predictions by activists and many scientist who should have known better. Instead they threw professional caution to the winds and now there are early signs that the winds are no longer favourable. From the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios published in 2000.

What are scenarios and what is their purpose?

Future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the product of very complex dynamic systems, determined by driving forces such as demographic development, socio-economic development and technological change. Their future evolution is highly uncertain. Scenarios are alternative images of how the future might unfold and are an appropriate tool with which to analyse how driving forces may influence future emission outcomes and to assess the associated uncertainties. They assist in climate change analysis, including climate modeling and the assessment of impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. The possibility that any single emissions path will occur as described in scenarios is highly uncertain. [My emphasis]

As to why these scenarios and the orthodox narrative were constructed in the first place – try this from the UN in 1996.

Energy production and use is the main source of many of the threats to the Earth's atmosphere. Despite tremendous increases in commercial energy use to date, the majority of the global population still has inadequate access to the kind of energy services enjoyed by the inhabitants of the industrialized countries. A lack of adequate energy services is one of the symptoms of poverty. The inequalities are so large that it would be virtually impossible for the majority of the world's population to enjoy similar resource intensive energy-use patterns as those prevailing in the industrialized countries. More sustainable energy patterns throughout the world and the protection of the atmosphere are recognized as important policy objectives at both the national and international levels. International environmental agreements are being extended from the local and national to international levels.

COMMITTEE ON NEW AND RENEWABLE

SOURCES OF ENERGY AND ON

ENERGY FOR DEVELOPMENT

Second session New York, 12 -23 February 1996

Climate change is and always has been a question of tying a knot between global equality and global energy policies. As the above document made clear enough back in 1996. If there are scientists prepared to say that CO2 causes this or that problem with this or that level of certainty then that's fine as far as the policy-makers are concerned - welcome aboard. These people are professional bureaucrats.

So the nuances are there, they always were.

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Ebola and the UK's lax border controls

The Sunday Mirror reports an estimate that the first human carrier of the Ebola disease could reach Britain by the end of the month. "It’s only a matter of time before one of these cases ends up on a plane to Europe," says the virus expert.

One of the things that makes this plague fearsome, apart from the terrible suffering of its victims and the high mortality rate, is the long incubation period of up to three weeks, which means that infection can spread very widely before it is detected.

This highlights the need for border security and as chance would have it, last Tuesday's edition of Radio 4's "File on 4" was on that subject:

"Border Security: All at Sea

"How well are Britain's borders patrolled and defended at a time when the authorities are battling to stem the flow of illegal immigrants coming across the Channel and tightening national security because of fears of a terrorist attack by extremists returning from fighting in Syria and Iraq?

"Allan Urry assesses the vulnerability of our ports, struggling with cuts to Border Force personnel and problems with a computer system that was supposed to have identified all those coming into and going out of the UK. The programme reveals how security checks on cargo are being compromised and hears concern about the gaps in surveillance of our coastline."

Click here to access the programme.

So, not just by air, but also by sea perhaps - in a container full of stowaways who've paid a fortune to get here, or under a lorry coming over the Channel from Calais, or through the Tunnel.

Will we have to wait until COBRA meets on some remote Scottish island while plague rages in the country, or will our political elite finally put away their surfboards and get down to some serious work?


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Sheer joy: Bruce Forsyth on HIGNFY, 2003

HIGNFY S25E08 - Bruce Forsyth, Marcus... by bobalmighty

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The Conservative Party: illusion and collapse

You might have the impression from some newspapers - maybe even the TV - that the British Conservative Party is prospering and that this week's party conference in Birmingham was a success.

Here is a graph showing Party member numbers over time:

Source: House of Commons Library (pdf) - via Wikipedia

Last year, only a third of those attending the Party Conference were members. It's getting like football: the fans no longer matter - they only supply images and sound effects for the edited, televised version. The real money is in sponsorship and deals.

Was the hall packed for Cameron's speech? Easily done: Birmingham Symphony Hall's seating capacity is 2,262 at most (less for rock and pop). For comparison, let's look at previous Party Conference venues. The Winter Gardens at Blackpool accommodates 3,500; Bournemouth International Centre's Windsor Hall seats 4,045; Brighton's Auditorium 1 takes 4,500.

I read where one of Elvis' concerts didn't sell out, so the organiser ripped out the front row of seats and replaced them with a bank of flowers; the Colonel was most pleased with this ingenious device. How far back would the bank of flowers have reached in Birmingham?

The seating capacity at Manchester Central Hall seems hard to discover,  as does the number of Labour members attending this year's conference, but Labour boasts a mere 10,000 attendees (less than the 14,000 expected by the Tories at the ICC), so how many card-carrying members actually crowded in to hear Miliband himself I can't say.

It's not just the Liberals that are having their "Kodak moment".



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Illegal NSA surveillance, Ronald Reagan and after

"The Smoking man"
Source: Wikipedia

Ronnie endorsing smoking
(Source)

Do dee do do, do dee do do... It would be funny - or a good X-files plotline - if it weren't true. James Bamford has been investigating - and fighting, bravely, more than I think I could do - the NSA since the 70s.

He didn't come to this as a journalist at first, but as a security-cleared part-time operative for the Naval Reserve who became a whistleblower when he found things that played on his sense of right and wrong. Especially when the NSA lied to the Church Committee in 1975 about having wound up its illegal surveillance:

"Soon after, committee staffers flew down to Sabana Seca for a surprise inspection. Surprise, indeed. They were shocked to discover the program had never been shut down, despite the NSA’s claims."

Post-Watergate, it was thinkable to consider prosecuting a Government agency - but then there was a change of Attorney General when Ronald Reagan became President:

"If the first shock to top officials at the NSA was the discovery that they were being investigated as potential criminals, the second shock was that I had a copy of the top secret file on the investigation. When the NSA discovered that the file was in my possession, director Bobby Inman wrote to the attorney general informing him that the documents contained classified information and should never have been handed over to me. But Civiletti, apparently believing that the file had been properly reviewed and declassified, ignored Inman’s protest.

"Then, on January 20, 1981, Ronald Reagan was sworn into office. At the Justice Department, Civiletti was replaced by a new attorney general with a much more accommodating attitude when it came to the NSA: William French Smith..."

The NSA wanted to retrieve embarrassing evidence from Bamford, and the President was gung-ho to help them:

"Despite the threats, I refused to alter my manuscript or return the documents. Instead, we argued that according to Executive Order 12065, “classification may not be restored to documents already declassified and released to the public” under the Freedom of Information Act. That prompted the drama to move all the way up to the White House. On April 2, 1982, President Reagan signed a new executive order on secrecy that overturned the earlier one and granted him the authority to “reclassify information previously declassified and disclosed.” "

Since then, of course, and since the Internet and supercomputers, the - some say unconstitutional and illegal - spying has become much worse:

"The agency’s metadata collection program now targets everyone in the country old enough to hold a phone. The gargantuan data storage facility it has built in Utah may eventually hold zettabytes (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes) of information. And the massive supercomputer that the NSA is secretly building in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, will search through it all at exaflop (1,000,000,000,000,000,000 operations per second) speeds."

For the whole of Bamford's account on NewsTrust, please see: http://newstrust.net/stories/9841512/toolbar

We need to do this to get at our, er, your enemies, says the apologists, here in the UK as in the USA. But remember the words of Sir Thomas More in Robert Bolt's play, "A Man For All Seasons":

"What would you do? Cut a great road through the law to get after the Devil? ... And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned round on you – where would you hide, [...] the laws all being flat? This country is planted thick with laws from coast to coast, Man's laws, not God's, and if you cut them down [...] do you really think you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then? Yes, I give the Devil benefit of law, for my own safety's sake!"


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Cragside

Sackerson says: An inaugural post by our new contributor, Cherry, about a part of England I've wanted to visit for some time.

Cragside House

Whenever I visit Northumberland I am always drawn to visit Cragside, the home of industrialist Lord William Armstrong.

He initially built the house as a weekend retreat, but in due course went to live there permanently. Over the years the house was added to giving it an unusual appearance and leading to the building having the look of a baronial castle and to it sometimes being referred to as the “palace of a modern magician”. The house which is perched on a craggy hillside overlooking Debdon Burn, contains many of Armstrong’s innovations and inventions. Surrounding the house on three sides is Europe’s largest rock garden. He and Lady Armstrong also turned the craggy hillside into a mass of greenery by planting thousands of trees and mosses.

Cragside has many constituent parts. I always visit the formal garden first ensuring peace and quiet before the garden gets busy. It is a perfect example of a Victorian formal garden. Within it is a restored orchard house believed to have been built circa 1870. The fine structure, with its timber base and cast-iron glazing bars in the roof, is a quite distinctive landmark in the surrounding district. The orchard house was built to grow hardy and tender fruits protecting them from the Northumbrian climate.

Carpet Bedding and Clock Tower

Carpet bedding can be found next to the orchard house and in summer months it has diminutive foliage planed in geometric patterns. The plants are clipped fortnightly using sheep shears to form a flat carpet-like surface. Each bed requires 10,000 plants which have been raised in the nursery at Cragside. My favourite time of year to visit the garden is September because the Dahlia walk is spectacular.

A clock tower is just outside the formal garden. It originates from the 1860s and was previously the estate’s timepiece (and pay office), chiming the start and finishing times for the estate’s workers.

View over holiday cottages towards Rothbury

The formal garden also provides an ideal viewing point over the market town of Rothbury. If you venture down into the town, you will see a pleasing mix of old stone and newer brick built properties either side of a wide main street. Rothbury has a number of small and interesting retail businesses including a very nice ladies clothes shop.

From the garden you can walk to the house by crossing the historic iron bridge which was designed especially to provide walking access between the house and the formal garden. In 2009 the bridge was restored and reopened for the first time in nearly 30 years. The 19th century grade II listed bridge spans the Debdon Burn providing magnificent views of the house and rock garden along with views of the Debdon valley with its waterfalls.

From the iron bridge the house is approached through the rock gardens, which extend all around the house covering 4.5 acres. Most of the rock has been man-laid, using sandstone from the local area. 

Within Cragside itself you can see several of Lord Armstrong’s engineering achievements including a hydraulic lift which lightened the load for the servants when carrying coal to the upstairs rooms.

Lord Armstrong was a collector of contemporary British art, furniture and natural history. Some of his collections are still displayed in the house, which was the first house in the world to be lit entirely by hydro-electricity. This was done by using water from Black Burn and Nelly’s Moss to provide a head of water to turn a turbine in the Power House. The National Trust has recently completed the installation of a new hydro-turbine, the Archimedes Screw, which will produce 12kw of electricity over the course of a year providing around 10% of electricity required to power Cragside. This will light the house for a year, continuing the aspiration of Lord Armstrong to illuminate his house by hydro-power.

Cragside has its own holiday cottages offering spectacular views of the garden and Rothbury. The cottage building was once known as the Cottage in the Park and was built around 1865 for the estate manager. The cottage has many features in common with the original part of Cragside and is thought to be designed by the same ‘unknown’ architect.

Nelly's Moss

There is a delightful leisure drive around the estate. The highlights for me are the Nelly’s Moss lakes which are beautiful. Behind the lower lake a labyrinth has been cut among the rhododendron trees to entice children of all ages. The drive is most spectacular when the rhododendrons are in full bloom.

If ever you pass in that direction I can thoroughly recommend a visit, there is something for everyone and something for all seasons.

More information can be found via the following links:

• National Trust – Cragside
• Cragside Facebook page

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Prime Ministers: the "tw*t" test

Why don't I like PM-to-be Boris Johnson? Because like most PMs I've observed, he thinks the electorate are fools or, to quote Brian Cox the Strumming Astrophysicist, "tw*ts". Ho ho, big, blond, bluff and bouncy, surely a man with his ebullient charm and wit is right for us? No, and pity the poor girls who've fallen for him. Many successful men have mistresses, but (allegedly) arranging the destruction of the innocent life they've created, that's another matter.

Look at Cameron - skirt-twitching about an EU referendum again, except this time he might - just might - even campaign for Brexit (if you run up the stairs three at a time you'll find you're not on a promise after all) , and forever having "feelings" about issues where we need "action" (his claiming to be "heartbroken" if Scotland became independent was the sort of oddly camp narcissism-on-wheels that his mentor Blair taught him). What happened to that Lisbon referendum, Cam? Frangible stuff, cast iron, apparently. But of course, you think we're goldfish.

Brown thought we were mathematically ignorant, so he habitually double-counted financial figures to impress us; the back-seat "bigot" comment might have helped the scales fall from many eyes.

Blair: at Oxford he promised a "Spacematic DISCO with LIGHTS!!" (do you know, it's getting hard to find links to that? I understand you can pay people to bury stuff low down on Google). Ever since, he's promised the obvious, the undoable or the forgettable - another goldfish-dazzler. Please God, Tom Bower stays well and completes his forthcoming biography of TB.

John Major, too, prided himself on knowing how to talk to the man in the "four-ale bar".

And so on and on, back and back. There are (a) few who - like them or loathe them - you could say were genuine and had our (quarrelsome) collective interests at heart.

• In an idle moment long ago, I riffled through the diary of Horace Walpole: his measure was whether someone had a "good heart" or a "bad heart".
• The criminal law is principally about intent.
• When I was in insurance, one pat slogan was that the clients don't care what you know, they want to know that you care.

Please, spare us another flashy man with contempt in his heart.


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Ur-language: "Tax"

A recent archaeological discovery in the Caucasus is being hailed as the most important find for over a century.

Deep in a cave complex whose location is still secret lies extensive evidence of life before the last Ice Age. Cave Six, dubbed "Rosetta Max" by the researchers based there, is festooned with images and writing spanning tens of millennia, yielding radical new insights almost weekly into human prehistory, social development and the evolution of language. Yet last week's revelation may be the most dramatic of all: Palaeolithic political graffiti.

Cave 11c - a tiny and obscure offshoot of one of the most remote spaces in the system - appears to have been visited only once before in all of history. Examination of the dust and debris has uncovered the ashes of a fire and a single human coprolite. The latter is provisionally dated to 25,000 BCE, but a more precise figure will be ascertained with the use of advanced scientific instruments. However, the season of the ancient visit (autumn) is already established, because of the type of pollen grains found in the stool. And although hunting was a key element in the society of that time, there is no trace of animal matter here.

Low down on the wall, just where the fire might have shed a fitful light, is a crudely-executed image scratched into the rock and enhanced with ashes. This shows a number of stick-figures accompanied by goats, proceeding between lines of other, larger figures armed with short clubs and spears, towards a seated group wearing some ceremonial head-dress. The artist has depicted the latter with large abdomens and above them is a bison, unmistakably defecating.

There are glyphs beneath the sketch, most of which are currently untranslatable as they are not found again elsewhere in the cave-chain; except for one, phonetically rendered as "taks." Wild, but very tempting speculation has it that there is a connexion between what appears to be the exaction of payment in the form of herd-animals, the artist's meatless coprolite, the word "taks", the apparently disrespectful drawing and the use of rare language.

The work continues.


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The best job in the world

No bad weather work, no dirt or bodily fluids, no heavy lifting.

If there are no results, the customer is at fault.

Repeat business for years, decades even.

Sigmund Freud: utter genius.


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