Saturday, May 19, 2007

China announces changes to interest and exchange rates

As I said on 16th May. Though it didn't take a genius to foresee: the Chinese are careful to flag up their intentions so as not to scare anyone. The interest rate increase means the yuan/renminbi will rise against the dollar.

The other move looks like part of a longer-term strategy: the band within which the yuan moves against the dollar is to widen from 0.3% to 0.5% (maximum per day - over time, unlimited), presumably partly to accommodate appreciation of the Chinese currency in response to the interest rate. This may please America, as a lower dollar will reduce the price advantage of Chinese good.

But I think it's also signalling the stage at which one partner tapes their favourite music, before they pack their bags and leave home for good. Having more flexibility in the dollar-yuan exchange may suit China's bigger plan, to move away from dependence on the US market.

Goodbye dollar, hello Euro?