Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Uncertainty

A trio of articles from Safe Haven: Paul Tustain thinks that inflation, and even hyperinflation are indeed possible, because of support operations for the banking system; Michael Swanson reads the charts and thinks the stockmarket could be teetering on the edge; Adam Oliensis of The Agile Trader is man enough to admit he's baffled:

A couple of things seem pretty clear to me: first, that I haven't lived long enough to have enough experience to know whether the bulls or bears are right about just how far the ripples will spread from the credit market problem; second, that there's never been an economic cycle just like this one, so even the people who have lived long enough to know who's right are speculating at best. (highlight mine.)

So it's not just me that's confused. And we're in distinguished company: Marc Faber also says we are in a new situation, with the possibility of a first-time-ever worldwide bust.

If we're into guesswork, then mine is that for a while, the monetary inflation will offset the credit (or "fiduciary money", as I'm learning to call it) deflation.

And then? Here's what worries me, in my amateurish, hunchy fashion: balance can be achieved in different ways (an empty seesaw is not the same as one with an elephant at each end). There's been a massive buildup of energy within the system, and the question is, can the Xbox take it?

2 comments:

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Sack

As a blogger, we usually have answers. In this case though there are so many possible scenarios. Its scary to admit there is no definitive answer--Yet.

Its even stranger to have a lot of agreement on the fact that we have no answer.

2008 could be a very interesting year

Have a Happy New Year

Sackerson said...

Hi Jim, great to hear from you. I hardly ever feel I have any answers, but I do worry, and worry even more that it's left to us bloggers and pamphleteers to be raising the big issues. From what I read, the UK is even less secure than the USA - 60 million people on a small island that would fit into the back pocket of Texas.

A happy New Year to you and yours, too.