Monday, June 27, 2011

The old order changeth, yielding place to new

David Cameron, slated in an anonymous article by an old-guard Conservative MP in the Daily Mail on Saturday, is further embarrassed the next day by selective and distorted revelations of a confidential briefing by his "close friend" Christopher Shale (full document here), who is then found dead in a toilet at the Glastonbury Festival. I think Cameron is on notice and conscious of this, is likely to make some further misjudgments in the effort to regain control swiftly. It's very odd he should remark "a big rock in my life has suddenly been rolled away", which to some ears would have a most inappropriate Biblical association.

On the other side of the House, Jack Straw has returned to the fray with further carefully-calculated populist topics. The burka controversy stirred the pot nicely in 2006, when it had become clear that Gordon Brown wasn't up to filling the saddle from which he'd thrown Tony Blair. Now, it is equally clear that the voters are less than impressed with the Miliband brothers' exaggerated sense of political entitlement. So Straw has let it be known last week that he thinks the euro is doomed, and this week that he is mightily concerned about the selling of consumers' personal data by car insurers and others. His comments have been well taken up by the allegedly Tory-hating media and perhaps we are meant to start thinking that it is time that Ed should make way for an older man; never send a boy to do a man's work, and so on. But I think Richelieu deceives himself if he dreams of becoming King.

The next General Election will be interesting. Perhaps we will finally see the collapse of both main political parties, a wish Peter Hitchens has repeatedly expressed.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

America's debt, the role of the State and the fight for survival

I'm going to look at the contention that State debt is the real villain and all we need to do is cut taxes and social benefits, and let business have its head. I don't feel it's quite as simple as that, but please do put me right wherever you see the need. This is an exploratory essay so I'd welcome correction, and further information and ideas.

First, let's agree that somehow or other, the State has to balance its books (over some cycle of time, to allow for recessions), because ever-increasing debt ultimately leads to ruin. That seems intuitively obvious.

So, how bad are the government's debts? Here's a graph of the official annual figures for the 58 years ending last December:


That looks dramatic, though the very steep slope in the last couple of years is atypical because of attempts to deal with the post-credit crunch economic crisis. Now let's see it in the wider context of GDP:

For the Federal government's "real" (GDP-adjusted) debt, the lowest point is in 1974, then a few years later, starting around 1980, the debt begins to rise significantly, doubling from its low by the early 90s. After that there's the boom of the later 90s, the bust of the 2000s disguised/mitigated/deferred by monetary easing, and the reckoning of 2008 onwards. (The final slope looks much as it did in the previous graph, since the economy has stalled.)

We end the sequence actually not far above where we started in 1952, but this time against the background of a greatly changed economy and society. To understand this we need to widen the lens to include the panorama of Total Credit Market Debt Outstanding:

This doesn't fit conveniently into the conventional narrative. All those whirring government-debt-counting widgets on blogs, yet 2007 was an historic low point? Something's funny here; time to look at what else was going on in the credit market. Let's begin with the "domestic" elements:

Proportionally, households up from 19% to 25%, nonfarm up from 3% to 7%, others generally stable or declining. The domestic sector as a whole shrank from 95% of TCMD to 69%.

So what was responsible for most of the rest? The financial sector:

Four subsets account for most of the financial sector:

As you see, it's now mostly mortgage-related. The graph above takes us to 2008, and below you see the first decade of the new Millennium, including the bailout of mortgage pools:

This demonstrates the government's recent effort to maintain the status quo. Personally, I feel that criticising them for this is like stoning the firefighters when they come to the blaze. My gripe is about how the fire started, which was the attempt to support homebuying and then to shore up home prices.

Take a look at what happens when we include the above three mortgage-based elements in the category of household debt - I rename the aggregate as "house and home":

So it's not general government overspending that's the biggest problem; at least, not directly. And then, when the home lending cracks up, the government rides to the rescue:


Oddly, from 1974 on, home and government debt are almost mirror images:

But it wasn't so before, when the two lines ran almost parallel. Perhaps there was some postwar golden age when money was going not into the spendthrift government, not into illiquid and non-income producing homes, but instead boosting American business? It seems so, if we look at the other subsectors of the "domestic" heading:

Having partially re-categorised the debt in a way that I hope you won't think too unfair, here's the simplified big picture showing how things changed over those 58 years:

To me, this seems illustrative of developing malinvestment. We have been buying and even speculating on houses, and filling them with foreign-made TVs, computers, iphones etc; but we've had much of our consumption on credit and indirectly (via the Treasury), quite a bit of that from abroad. (I say "we" because my brother is now an American, and aso because Britain is America's mini-me in terms of its economic problems.)

Imagine if that money had gone into business ventures, instead of illiquid and non-income-producing housing assets. What if successive governments had reined-in credit and consumer spending, and encouraged the reinvestment of profits into industry and research, rather than the unreally-rewarded financial sector?

Far from over-regulating, it would seem that government has failed to regulate sufficiently. Laissez-faire economics may work okay when the quantity of money is limited, but fiat currency (and debt, which forms part of it) entails the duty to supervise and intervene when necessary.

Was debt ever good? I speculated earlier that there might have been a postwar golden age of beneficial credit, when business borrowing accounted for a third of all debt. Yet when we relate the credit market with GDP, here's the result:

It seems as though debt never fully pays for itself, and the faster the debt accumulates, the worse it gets. Coincidentally, Karl Denninger has just made the same point. Last year, Nathan Martin's "Chart of the century" purported to show that beyond a certain point, additional debt results not just in lesser growth, but actually reduces GDP. Are we all wrong, or is "sound money" a (maybe the) precondition of a sustainable economy? (And how do we square this with the fact that many individual businesses borrow and prosper - is it that leverage gets you market share but tends to shrinks the market overall?)

The size of the debt is unimaginable, though still calculable. Four years ago I was reading Michael Panzner reporting on comptroller-general David M. Walker's mission to warn the nation, Cassandra-like, of the scale of unfunded State healthcare obligations. Even then, the latter was talking about figures exceeding $50 trillion. Well, we've breached that ceiling right now, even without factoring-in the notional capitalized value of benefit programs. Here we are:


Some say we're approaching (and some others say we're past) the point where it becomes mathematically impossible for the economy even to service the interest on our obligations, let alone reduce the amount outstanding. I'm not sure I agree, though the challenge is certainly daunting. Here is the total credit market debt expressed as a percentage of GDP:




If we have to be deeply in hock, perhaps it's better to have the government take care of some of the burden, for three reasons:

1. The debt doesn't have to end, as for example a mortgage does. Loans may need to be rolled-over, but the nation as a whole doesn't retire, so it can borrow forever.

2. Government debt is more secure, in the sense that more fiat money can be created to make the payments. How can you run out of nothing, which is where the money comes from? (Or rather, it comes from diluting the value of other people's stock of the money.)

3. The interest rates are, accordingly, lower than for most private and corporate borrowing. The average for all Treasury interest-bearing debt is currently 3%, whereas fixed-rate mortgages (if you can get one) are running at 4% - 5%, and credit cards are now averaging over 16%.

So, by all means let the government play little Dutch boy, plugging the holes in the dam. The total interest on the national debt for fiscal year 2010 was $414 billion, a vast sum but still an effective interest rate of around 3%. What average rate is being paid on the other $38 trillion or so that's burdening the economy (not to mention capital repayments)? Imagine if that debt was on terms similar to the government's...

Maybe it's not the banks that should be bailed out, but businesses and consumers. How would things look if more debt was transferred to government and slowly retired and paid for by various forms of taxation? Could this help distressed consumers and businesses keep going for long enough to get back on their own feet? Or must we go the let-'em-fail way demanded by free-market Puritans? (In which case, can we also get puritanical about the money supply and who is allowed to supply it, please?)

Bailing out is a good thing to do when the ship is sinking, but we have to do much more than that. So much has to go right that it's no wonder Dr Marc Faber (aka "Doctor Doom"), away in his Thai retreat, reckons it's hopeless and predicts a complete economic "re-set" (including the death of the dollar) and war. I hope he's wrong for once, otherwise I'm wasting my time here.

Survival begins in the head: you have to believe you'll get through, so you can condition your mind to look for tools and opportunities. Can we work on the assumption that there is a way?

One way was suggested in 1993 by the far-seeing billionaire Sir James Goldsmith, who recognised the threat that GATT posed to Western economic and social stability. Sadly, the man is no longer with us, but his book, "The Trap", is still available and highly relevant, even more so now that Goldsmith's predictions are coming true.

Globalisation has tipped the balance of power so decisively in favour of capital and against labour that American - and European - society is beginning to tear itself apart. Sir James advocated a system of economic trading areas to protect against completely unbeatable competition from extremely low-cost labour forces.

Either capitalism - which, theoretically, creates work and wealth by allocating capital efficiently - must have some bounds set for it so that it nurtures the society that gave rise to it - or, as Marx predicted, its contradictions will destroy itself. If we don't want an Ayn Rand dystopia, we have to make it possible for our people to work and prosper.

We are presently trading away not merely our income but the jobs that earn it, and the capital and physical means that create the jobs, and the knowhow that utilises the means in productive projects, and the intellectual property rights that safeguard the knowhow. As for the development of fresh, potentially wealth-creating knowledge, I understand that businesses have been cutting their R&D and even the universities favour their MBA schools over maths and science.

We need a plan. It will call for visionary leadership, skilled and patient management, the most careful international diplomacy, and the co-operation of politicians, voters, workers, industrialists and financiers.

In the meantime, emergency measures may be necessary, and they may not be the ones the econo-fundamentalists want. Austerity could be the worst possible solution at this stage - it is the exact opposite of Keynesianism to let rip when times are good and starve the economy further when there's already a recession on, and others are making this point already, e.g. "Rortybomb" and Australian economist Bill Mitchell. And there are those who say that taxation is nothing like as onerous as many people believe.

Or do you go with "Doctor Doom"? If so, maybe you shouldn't be planning to be rich in your own country, but preparing to move far away from the consequences of the coming collapse.

If you think that is irresponsible doom-talk, consider the President's Executive Order of a couple of weeks ago. I don't read the establishment of a White House Rural Council as mere quasi-socialist interfering; I sense the beginning of a national plan to survive and feed the nation in disrupted times. If it isn't such a plan, then there should be one.

For it's about more than just money, now.

INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash, and missing all those day-trading opportunities.


DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.

Saturday, June 11, 2011

Friday, June 03, 2011

Why the stockmarket could fall by 70% in real terms

(The following article was published yesterday on Seeking Alpha.)
_______________________________________

My Feb. 11 SA estimate that the Dow could drop to 4,500 is echoed in a May 16 video interview with Russell Napier, who is predicting an equities bottom at around S&P 400. Actually, this is even lower than my guess, in proportion to the index chosen, but Napier says his figure is an average of what he expects valuations to be.

I've had a little abuse for this view, some rather personal, and it seems I'm too dumb to notice that the market has just had its biggest, fastest rise in history. Actually, the latter fact has not escaped me, and I take my hat off to those who have got on and off the Enron-like ride at the perfect moments -- so far.

What we've really seen in the last decade is two economic heart attacks and liberal use of the defibrillator: First a slash in interest rates that (given the venality and criminality of some in the financial world) led indirectly to the busting of the housing market and some major banks, and then a pouring of resources into the banking system that is now busting the credit of whole governments.

In a way, conventional market analysis is now hardly relevant, because the system is so grossly interfered with by government that everything hangs on what the Fed decides to do ... and how long it can get away with it. I pointed out several months ago that China (among others) is becoming very antsy about the export of America's inflation to the developing world.

In a May 10 interview with MoneyWeek's editor Merryn Somerset Webb, Napier says he expects the "reset" to come in two stages: First deflation, and then sharp inflation. I've pondered the in/de question for a long time, and his analysis seems plausible to me. We're so interconnected these days that a bust wouldn't just wipe out profligate banks, but also would crater the pensions and investments on which we have come to depend ... not to mention the taxman, who (particularly here in the UK) has found it very convenient to harvest money from the swollen financial sector. So inflation will be seen as the way to steal wealth to spackle up the cracks in the system. (Can you make a whole house out of spackle and duct tape, though?)

What's unusual about the current situation is that bonds are not on the other end of the seesaw to equities. Napier foresees a swift move up in interest rates that will undermine both. They say you shouldn't give an estimate and a timeframe at the same time, but he does, for the bear "pit": 2014. We shall see.

Meantime, Mike Shedlock today gives an alternative view, pointing out that corporations are holding a lot of cash. Maybe so, though I'd like to know more about who has the cash and who has the debt; whether some have both; and what the latter may do if interest rates spike. Not to mention what will happen to the demand side when ordinary Americans finally run out of money, as indeed many are doing already.

I have suggested that cash is not a bad place to be, unless you are one of the SA-reading gunslingers who has a sharp eye and sharper reflexes. Given the growing vulnerability of the US dollar (and various moves to weaken its position as the world's reserve currency), Napier has said (in the May 16 interview linked above) we might consider the currencies of emerging markets.

And I hedge my bet on the destination of the market by saying it may not be Dow 4,500 or S&P 400 in nominal terms -- but the market could well be there after adjusting for inflation.

Finally, there is a bright gleam in the dark: As Napier says, the bottom won't be in for long, and those who have the cash then and get in fast can "go to the beach" for years afterward. Like, as the FT interviewer said, in 1982.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash, and missing all those day-trading opportunities.

DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.

Saturday, May 28, 2011

NS&I Savings Certificates - the clock is ticking!

If you're considering buying an NS&I Savings Certificate, especially the (RPI-) index-linked version, you may need to decide quickly.

NS&I's site says they "expect [them] to be on sale for a sustained period of time", which gives them room for manoeuvre as to timing and could leave ditherers suddenly high and dry. They also say "we are currently experiencing high volumes of calls" and this could mean that they will reach their overall sales target well before the end of the financial year - which is why, reportedly, the Certificates were withdrawn from sale last July . It's also worth noting that there is no specific target for Savings Certificates - as I reported here last month, it is merely expected that NS&I will end the tax year managing £2 billion more than it did at the beginning - spread over all its products, including e.g. Premium Bonds.

Moreover, there is commercial pressure to withdraw the Certificates. I reported that they were back on 12 May, and a mere two weeks later the Nationwide Building Society began complaining of "unfair competition" from NS&I.

The Government is in a cleft stick: people should have a secure and inflation-proof haven for their cash, but it is also a priority to get banks and building societies lending again to stimulate the economy.

It has also been observed that since the financial sector has been allowed to dominate the economy, the Treasury has become semi-dependent on taxes on bankers' bonuses. I have to bite my tongue at this point!

Actually, the competition complained of is not as fearsome as it was. True, you can invest up to £15,000 for a 5-year period (and can also buy them for children aged seven or more); but the 2- and 3- year versions are no longer available for new purchases (existing ones can usually be rolled-over on maturity), so the maximum you can invest has been sharply reduced: in 2006 you could have committed up to £45,000 per person, by buying three different versions at the same time!

Further, although the Certificates are still RPI-linked and tax-free, the additional interest is now only 0.5% per year. As before, you can access the cash before the end of the 5-year term (I suspect this term was chosen as being the least attractive), but you lose a year's interest.

Having said that, I still think they are better than what you can get elsewhere. As this FT article says (see end), the commercial alternatives are either taxable or carry a degree of investment risk.

If you do want to get in (and remember, this is NOT a personalised recommendation!), do so before the market whinges the Government into submission. You can apply online here.

INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: We're just considering buying some ourselves!

DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Letter to The Spectator: GM contrarianism

Sir;

Matt Ridley’s statement (Diary, 14 May) that “GM allows the organic dream of drastic cuts in pesticide use to come true without high cost” must surely be disingenuous coat-trailing, or at least an instance of grossly unbalanced journalism. Before he ripostes that this was only a passing comment in a desultory diary, I should like to suggest that the subject of how we are going to feed ourselves and our descendants deserves better than a contrarian throwaway line.

Mr Ridley makes no reference to research (e.g. as quoted by Friends of the Earth in 2008) that indicates increased use of pesticides in conjunction with GM crops. Is he also unaware of the common assertion that one of the purposes of GM in cereals is to develop crops that are resistant to the side-effects of herbicides and some pesticides, so helping to expand the market for the agrichemical industry? Does he further wish us to believe that he is ignorant of the debate about monoculture farming: how it allegedly increases liability to disease and pests, which in turn encourages the use of chemicals that harm wildlife and soil microorganisms and degrade the soil structure?

As a meat-eating, leather-shoe-wearing Westerner, I should like those who come long after me to have the same options; it is not only the plastic-sandaled devotees of Gaia who are concerned about sustainability, or the integrity of our environment.

Thursday, May 12, 2011

NS&I Savings Certificates return!

Five-year index-linked and fixed rate NS&I Certificates are now available again, according to a hotline email received here today.

Demand is likely to be high so if you want to get in, NS&I recommend applying online.


INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash, and missing all those day-trading opportunities.
DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Quizlet

Who said this?

"The purpose of agriculture is not just to produce the maximum amount of food, at the cheapest direct cost, employing the least number of people. The true purpose should be to produce a diversity of food, of a quality which respects human health, in a way which cares for the environment and which aims at maintaining employment at a level that ensures social stability in rural communities."


1. Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall
2. Tony Benn
3. David Miliband
4. Sir James Goldsmith
5. Ross Finnie
6. Barbara Ward and Rene Dubos
7. Nick Brown

Saturday, May 07, 2011

We need both AV and compulsory voting

It looks as though the Alternative Vote will be given a resounding raspberry.

A shame, because we may soon see radical policies in Scotland on the "mandate" of a majority party that has won overt support from less than 25% of eligible voters.

Here, thanks to The Guardian's Datablog, are the results of the Scottish Assembly Elections, expressed as a percentage of the electorate, 49.64% of whom abstained:



This is hardly the basis on which Mr Salmond can feel justified in reversing the Highland Clearances, or whatever he plans to do with the systemically-distorted power he is set to wield.

The Celtic Twilight is perhaps better represented by the party I call (with apologies to Dylan Thomas) "Fforeggub" - which has just put in a storming performance in my own ward's local council election, garnering over two-thirds of the potential vote. This democratic failure has ousted the nice Lib Dem lady (I voted UKIP, on principle) in favour of the Labour bod, who got less than 16% of the franchise:



In an increasingly divided and crisis-beset country, I'd argue that we need not only the Alternative Vote but (as I said last month) mandatory voting.

For me, a spoiled ballot is spoilt behaviour, and an abstention is a moral abdication. It is not a worthy exercise of your liberty to surrender liberty itself. The blasé line "Don't vote, it only encourages them" is exactly wrong: the failure to vote empowers and emboldens those who squabble to grab the country out of each other's hands and play recklessly with it.

Thursday, May 05, 2011

The One Percenters

Just voted. I asked one of the returning officers, "Good turnout?"

"Still under 200." This is at gone half five. So my wife and I represent over 1% of votes cast so far, at that station.

I wanted my vote to count, but not this way.

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Credit cards and consumer protection

As reported in the Daily Mail today, you get additional consumer protection if you make a purchase of an item worth £100 or more by using your credit card.

The Mail piece is based on details on page 16 in the latest issue of "Ombudsman News", a regular publication by the Financial Ombudsman Service (aka FOS -see link in sidebar under "Financial Regulators (UK)"). In the case cited, a student had bought what turned out to be a faulty computer and when she complained, the shop advised her to contact the manufacturer; but she didn't have time to do this, so she sought redress from the credit card issuer instead. When the issuer refused, the FOS ruled in the student's favour.

Section 75 of the Consumer Credit Act 1974 (current version) states:

"If the debtor under a debtor-creditor-supplier agreement falling within section 12(b) or (c) has, in relation to a transaction financed by the agreement, any claim against the supplier in respect of a misrepresentation or breach of contract, he shall have a like claim against the creditor, who, with the supplier, shall accordingly be jointly and severally liable to the debtor."

"Jointly and severally" means that the consumer does not have to deal with the shop or the manufacturer first, he/she can get the money back from the credit card company; but the supplier can also be dragged into the action, if the consumer so chooses.

This does not apply if the purchase is via a "non-commercial agreement", or if the item cost less than £100 or more than £30,000, or if the credit card terms have been breached (e.g. by exceeding the credit limit on the account).

In the definitions section of the Act, "“non-commercial agreement ” means a consumer credit agreement or a consumer hire agreement not made by the creditor or owner in the course of a business carried on by him" - in other words, loosely speaking, the transaction has to have been commercial rather than private.

Worth buying a car from a dealer this way, perhaps?

INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash, and missing all those day-trading opportunities.

DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.

Monday, May 02, 2011

AV explained beautifully



(htp: angry exile)

A letter to Douglas Carswell MP

Monday, 02 May 2011

Douglas Carswell MP
The House of Commons
London
SW1A 0AA


Dear Sir

Financial Services (Regulation of Deposits and Lending) Bill 2010-11

Congratulations on your speech introducing the above Bill, which I have just seen on YouTube. May I offer some counter-arguments so that you can rebut them when others raise them?

• Were your Bill to become law, the banks might simply offer no interest on “storage bank accounts” and a sufficient differential on “investment accounts” to draw money away from the former, even from cautious savers (but still not enough in the latter case to match inflation). In fact something like this is already happening with people investing in stocks who shouldn’t.

• British business might be at a disadvantage if we have this rule but other countries don’t. Look what the US has already bought from us with “candyfloss money” – the old Cadbury Quakers must be spinning in their graves.

• Savings need to be safe in terms not only of the return of capital, but the return of its real value. NS&I Index-Linked Savings Certificates fitted that bill, and were withdrawn in 2010 for the first time in 35 years. This is an indication of the Government’s priorities, surely. But even when available, money had to be locked up in those Certificates for years. And when first introduced, they were only available to pensioners.

• If you really want sound money for the protection of ordinary savers, then we should have index-linked (and linked to a properly fair index of consumer price inflation), instant-access (or short-notice access) cash ISAs, so that deferred consumption is at least not penalised, if not positively rewarded.

Very best wishes to you and for your Bill,

Rolf Norfolk

INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash, and missing all those day-trading opportunities.
DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.

Sir Fred Goodwin

Owing to a "super-injunction" still in force, I am unable to say any more than that Sir Fred Goodwin is a *anker and has been a prominent *anker for years.

Sunday, May 01, 2011

In the news: Gerry Adams and Libya

In the Daily Mail, Petronella Wyatt recalls how, aged 12, she was threatened by the IRA on account of her father's journalism; she describes Gerry Adams' smile as reminding her of "the glint of coffin handles".

Elsewhere in the news: one of Colonel Gaddafi's sons (and three grandchildren) reportedly killed by a missile on account of Western interests' quarrel with his father. This is not authorised by UN Resolution 1973 and the assassination of political leaders is against inernational law; when the inevitable reaction occurs, the Libyan ambassador is ordered to leave the UK.

It is said that at the Battle of Waterloo, Napoleon rode momentarily within range of a British musket, but Wellington forbade the shot.

In praise of rotten boroughs

Democracy is inconvenient and there are moves to tidy it away, one of them being to reduce the number of MPs from 650 t0 585, with the following result (using size of electorate as at 1 December 2010):


Imagine that the constituency in which you live is a vast coach, and the MP your driver. What chance is there that you will go to the destination of your choice? Especially when the front rows are filled with lobbyists, Whips and others with much louder voices than yours.

Whereas in the General Election of 1831, 152 out of 406 MPs were chosen by fewer than 100 voters. Gatton (Surrey) and Old Sarum (Wiltshire) each had only 7 electors and each sent 2 members to the House of Commons. At least you'd have got a drink out of them once every few years.

AV means the driver might just hear a little chorus from the back, above the commercial and cliquey hubbub roaring just behind him.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Andrew Marr comes clean

About time. I touched on this in 2008 and discussed his inconsistency in 2009. Yes, our interest is prurient - "we know-what-you've-been dooo-ing" - but he suddenly refused to be paid in his own coin. Now he should be in a stronger position to deal with oblique threats from deranged Campbell types.

Why didn't Ian Hislop blow the gaffe before? For all his moral judginess, Hislop was reportedly chosen as a safe pair of hands by those who had got to the age where they needed Private Eye to be their pension fund. In his heyday, Ingrams would have gone for the story and blow the consequences. By the way, how many people were interviewed for the PE editorship when Ingrams stood down? Can't wait for an in-depth on that story.

Still, prudence is the better part of valour. The former editor of Spiked magazine met with a fatal accident in Cyprus shortly after an edition of his publication that included explosive allegations about a then Tory cabinet minister's private activities in a North African hotel.

Mind how you go.

Banks still under pressure?

The banks are supposed to get lending again, and simultaneously rebuild their cash reserves. But Bank of England statistics show that reserves are actually falling, instead.

Figures for last month show that year-on-year, notes and coins in circulation increased by nearly 4%, but reserves held in bank accounts dropped by over 11%.

I reproduce the BoE's table below (interesting that they present it in a bashful pale grey on white - the visual equivalent of the civil servant's polite, embarrassed cough?) - click to enlarge.


INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash, and missing all those day-trading opportunities.


DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog.

Monday, April 25, 2011

In a nutshell

You can get a headache thinking about inflation and deflation - but either way you stand to end up broke. Either you'll be rolling in worthless money or you won't have any money.

James Kunstler

New site launch: Orphans of Liberty


A new site is starting today, run by a (mostly) right of centre blogging collective. Give it a go: Orphans of Liberty.